Estimate the most likely expected receptions by assuming a Poisson model where the given odds correspond to the probability of the Over (or Under) clearing the O/U line.
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Implied probability of Over
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Converted from American odds (de‑vig not applied)
Threshold k for Over (X ≥ k)
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Derived from O/U (e.g., 3.5 → k = 4)
Expected receptions (anchored)
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Anchored so odds +100 ⇒ output = O/U. Uses Poisson to shape deviation as odds move away from +100.
Enter inputs and click Calculate.
Assumes receptions follow a Poisson count. Using only one side’s price may include vig; if you have both Over and Under prices, de‑vigging will refine the estimate.