Every week team managers make very difficult start/sit decisions hoping to trudge their way to fantasy football glory. These decisions can be frustrating because trying to predict player performance can end up feeling more about luck than talent. There are great consistency analysis tools out there that you should use as part of your draft-day decisions and when setting your weekly lineup but how do we assess whether a player is not just consistent, but also predictable? Predictability Scores define a player's predictability. These scores have no direct correlation to a player’s fantasy performance. In this metric, it would be possible to average five fantasy points per game but end up with a Predictability Score of 100. We analyze a player's individual performance on a week-to-week basis against himself and against other players of the same position playing against common defenses. This is a tool which should be used in partnership with other resources in understanding how reliable a player was when on the field. Is he going to score the points that you expect him to? This can be a great tiebreaker when trying to choose between two players in your draft or to help you to balance your roster and making sure your player portfolio has variety.
Predictability Scores are based on fantasy production since 2017 in half-point PPR and 4 point passing touchdown scoring.